Basics of football betting

For a newcomer to betting, let alone online betting, then one may wonder where the best place is to start. Football is naturally one of the largest markets for online sportsbooks, and is the sport which makes people sign up with a bookie, such is its popularity. There are some basics of football betting to take a look at, which can not only help you ease into the world of football betting, but also can help you start making a profit as quickly as possible.

You can’t fail to look at a bookmaker and see the wealth of betting opportunities available for football markets. You will have an idea where to start, and it will probably be with your favourite team. Naturally you will want your team to win and backing them seems like a pretty sound idea. This is a lot of people’s basic introduction into the world of online football betting, as it is an easy entry point. So, all that you need to do from that point is find your team in the Sportsbook coupon and select them to add to your betting slip. You enter your stake and confirm the bet, and you have just made your first wager.

So... that is a very basic introduction to football betting, as you have not taken into any consideration the prices on offer at your bookmaker. Did the bet you make represent good value or not? As a fan of that team you will have a good idea of whether they are supposed to win or not against their opposition. If they are, then the odds will have been low and you will stand to make only a small amount of profit, meaning that you staked a lot in relation to what winnings you will get. If, however they aren’t expected to win, then you will be hoping for a big upset to make you happy, as your odds will have been longer, and there much more valuable to you, if your team does win. Always weigh up the risk of the stake against the potential returns before betting on football, or any sports for that matter, as it should never be overlooked. Always make sure that you are never betting more than you can afford, too. So, what if your team is expected to win and you don’t want to wager too big a stake, and the odds really are not going to give you much back? This is where some basics of football betting start to get a little more interesting. 

Best sports books will present a lot more markets for football betting than just picking an outright winner. Take a look in the extra bets section next to a match and you will see plenty more options such as First Goalscorer, Anytime Goalscorer, Handicap Betting,Correct Score, Winning Margin and much, much more. If your outright odds aren’t anything spectacular, then it is well worth dipping into these markets to find something of much better value. There are some good prices to be had around here, and do constitute the basics of football betting. You make your selections just as you would with your outright winner bets, but because these alternative markets are a little more specialised in terms of picking a correct outcome, there are much better prices to be had around. But, if you are happy with accumulating a little profit at a time, then stick with backing your favourite team through thick and thin. 

Start Internet Sports Betting

Internet sports betting has been developed into a big industry today.  Several sports books are now operating on the web, accepting wagers from bettors around the world.  Well, internet sports betting is favored by many players for the reason that it gives them better chances of winning.   Another major reason for that ever growing popularity of internet sports betting is that the online bookmakers can save you a lot of time.  This is obviously for the fact that with this gambling trend, you do not need to search and approach a local bookmaker just to place a bet.  With the internet sports betting, you can easily place a bet at any time of the day and night without leaving your room.

But, what you should do to enjoy sports betting on the internet?

To start your ultimate internet sports betting, you need to choose a reliable bookmaker.   As what I’ve said earlier, several bookmakers are now out there on the web, so finding the most reliable one could be difficult.  The best thing to do now is to read reviews or choose the ones that you have heard before, that have a well-known name, reliability and credibility.   Look for some recommendations online and if you’ve found one, read first the rules of your chosen bookmaker to see if you are okay with them and also to avoid some possible problems in the future.  Choose a couple of bookmakers for opening accounts with.

If you’ve found the right portal to place your wagers on, start opening your account.  Opening a sports betting account online is just very simple.  All you need to do is to look for the link “Register” or “Open Account”.  Click on it and provide some information about yourself.  You will be asked about a user name and password which you will be using in your every visit.

For you to place a bet on internet sports betting, you have to have some money on your account.  So the next step would be to deposit the money.   Note that several online bookmakers today offer a wide range of possibilities for depositing your money.  They often welcome credit cards, by check or by bank wire.  Once you have deposited your money for internet sports betting, it is also important to check for bonus after your deposit.  Most bookmakers actually provide some sort of bonuses or promotional offer after your first deposit.

Place your bets.  But before you do this, check and understand first how to place a bet at your chosen bookmaker.  Read the rules of your bookmaker and be careful when you place your first bets.  There are some internet sports betting sites these days that have different types of odds and this can be tricky.  So if possible choose odds format that you are familiar with.

Finally, whenever you have some questions at the internet sports betting site you’ve chosen, or if you have problems with your bets, don’t hesitate to contact the customer service of your chosen internet sports betting bookmaker.  Note that customer service is there to help you, so let them do their job.  They are paid for that job after all.

Money Management when Betting on Sports

When betting on sports, it is no surprise for you to know that hundreds of bettors lose their bets.  Well, losing at sports betting is just normal.  But didn’t you wonder why so many people lose at betting on sports despite the fact that sports betting provides them better chances of winning?  Some say that it is because of poor handicapping.  But while this can be true, for me it is not the exact reason that bettors lose as there are hundreds of folks that are expert handicappers who still lose their shirts year in and year out.  The truth of the matter is, people lose at betting on sports because of poor money management skills.

People with poor money management skills are usually uninformed.  However, this is not often the case as others manage their money poorly because they are undisciplined.  No matter what the case may be, people who lose at betting on sports are both uninformed and undisciplined.

So if you are serious about success in betting on sports, then I guess it is very crucial for you to make plan and remain disciplined.  As what most of the money management experts often say, it is best to set up your own goals, your strategy for winning at betting on sports, and of course some betting rules that you will always keep in mind during your sports betting.

When I say setting up of your goals, what I mean is thinking first from what you want from a certain sportsbook.You should set up your goals as money limit that you want to earn.  Always remember that when betting on sports, one should bet only with money that he or she can afford to lose.  To put it simply, never bet with money that you cannot afford to lose or you do not have for that can only bring you lots of problems in the end.

As soon as you have set up your betting goals, you should then start defining the betting strategies you might take.  One particular winning strategy that I am familiar about is the so-called betting on singles only.  According to some expert bettors and handicappers, it is very important that when betting on sports you avoid accumulators.  Perhaps one main support for this is the fact that your possibilities for winning at sports betting are decreasing with every game added in accumulator.  So at the beginning of the game or the betting season, try to set up your usual betting amount and only bet most of your singles.  Then, when you find yourself winning at a particular betting season, do not increase stakes.   This is also true when you are in losing streak either.

Finally, betting on sports needs a time for little rest.  So if you find yourself loosing streak when betting on sports and it seems that you cannot win, think that maybe it’s time for you to take a little rest.   Consider not to bet for a week or two.  As far as I know, this will help you obtain a better view of things.  Also, think that in sports betting not all... See more on the best free betting tips site.

HOW TO OBTAIN THE BEST SPORTS BETTING ODDS

Many betters who place their money on various sporting events for a profit want to be sure to get the best odds possible. Nevertheless, no matter what game they become involved in, they will be unable to avoid the idea that the best sports betting odds with always favor the house. This fact also holds true within the games and machines found in all casinos.

The best sporting odds tend to be higher than those of other gambling games. In most cases, the betters of sporting events can expect to receive about 8 to 10 percent of their initial investments back. For example, if you bet $100 on the sporting event, the chances are high that you will make at least $108-$110 back in the long term.

However, the real question here is how to locate the best betting odds when it comes to sports.

There are a variety of ways that you can find the best betting odds for sports. One such method is to locate the most reliable sports books available out there. These sports books are generally used to show money lines and spread sheets, which are what most sports betters use when determining whether or not to wager their money on a certain team, whether it be a favorite team or an underdog.

In order for sports books to be truly beneficial, betters must remember that they are not playing the actual sports books. They need to understand that there is a difference between these books and the real odds, which are not completely determined by the books. The odds are instead a predictive measure that has been created by the bookie.
The best odds for sports betting are expressed in numbers. These numbers depend on a variety of factors, but may be altered or adjusted if it is sent that a great deal of betters placing their wagers on the same team. In what ways do bookies compensate for this action? They simply add points to a losing team and remove points from the more popular team. With this method, the bookie is able to make the most money with the best sports betting odds. This is where the idea that the odds will always favor the house come into play.
Examining the money lines is yet another strategy for determining the best sports betting odds. Some experts of gambling state that the best way to understand what a money line is is to consider it as what the better should wager in order to make $100 in profits from the bet. The money line itself is typically represented with a positive or negative number. For instance, it could be  -100 or +100. As it was mentioned earlier, the long term profit for the placement of these bids typically comes out to be 8-10 percent.

Why Bet On Sports?

Here is a question that few people ever really ask: why should you bet on sports? Some may find this to be a rather odd question. Most people have never really pondered their answer. Generally, the common response will be that they bet on sports to make money. Honestly, that is a perfectly fine answer. No one will look to wager on sports to lose money! In all seriousness, it is a nice thing to win a lot of money, but making the best sports picks is not always easy.

Right now, we can look at a few of the other reasons why it is best to bet on sports.

Betting on sports can be fun and exciting. Yes, there is a financial component to making the best sports picks. No one wishes to make a poor financial decision. Of course, most people realize you cannot win every time you place a wager and no one ever expects this to be the case. However, there is still a lot of excitement that you can have whether you win or lose as long as you do not suffer a high amount of losses. The key to circumventing such an outcome would be not to bet more than you can afford to lose which would be simple, basic common sense.

There is a sense of excitement you can draw from the venture because you will be pulled into the game. This can be considered part of the psychological enjoyment when you bet on sports. In a way, you have such a stake in the outcome in the game you become part owner of the team for a very short period of time. Well, you do from a psychological standpoint at least. With a wager, your stake is stronger than that of a casual fan, which adds to the great benefit of playing the game. Again, just be sure never to go overboard with the amount you actually wager.

It does bear repeating, you can make quite a bit of money when you best on sports. When you hit a streak of quality sports picks, you will discover that your fortunes might turn around a lot quicker than people realize. Consider that another major reason why it is worthwhile to best on sports.

Just be sure you are doing the proper research on the teams you are wagering on. Wagering should never be random or based on selections that are not logical. This will be the pathway to losing money as opposed to making any. So, look toward making reliable sports picks whenever possible or else you will discover your ability to amass money wagering will be nil.

For those that may not be all that adept at making picks, here is some advice: sign on with a solid sports betting line service. Often, they can provide excellent picks and predictions that will improve your chances of winning. And that is what you want in the long run is it not?

Click here for more information on sports betting

Top Sports Betting Tips

While many will mention how much fun they have with sports betting, they will also be quick to acknowledge that much of their fun will be predicated on winning. No one really likes to place a wager and end up on the losing end. Yet, that is part of the game. Are there ways to minimize it? Here is some good news for those wondering such a thing: the following five top notch betting tips will certainly boost the chances of winning - and winning big - at any sports you place a wager on.

So, without further ado, here are the top five most helpful sports betting tips:

Perform a high amount of research. No, this does not mean you need to invest an enormous amount of time tracing the history of the team back several decades. While such amateur historian work can be a little fun it would also be a bit unnecessary. Instead, simply review the win-loss records of the team, coaching changes, injury reports, and other factors that play a role in the outcome of a team's performance.

Follow the lines offered by a top of the (pardon the pun) line handicapper. Lines play a large role in virtually all sports betting ventures. Mostly all betting tips would be useless if you were not following effective lines designed to give you a clear idea of who is the favorite and who is the underdog.

Take part in alternative sports betting as a way of hedging. There is most than one type of bet you can place on a particular game. An over and under bet would be a common example of this. How does an over and under bet work? Basically, you would be placing a wager on whether or not the combined total of the final score is either higher or lower than the figure presented by the handicapper. Many will place over and under bets as a hedge to cover any losses if their primary picks do not win. Of course, if the primary picks do win and the over and under bets wins, you can really clean up on that game. That is why wagering on the over and under as a hedge might be among the most helpful of all betting tips.

Subscribe to a well respected game prediction service. First off, no service can credibly make the claim that it can provide 100% accuracy with all predictions. No reasonable person should expect that any service can. However, there are wagering prediction services that can develop a consistently higher rate of accurate predictions. Such services would be the ones you would be better suited for signing up with since they are known for their higher percentage of quality results.

Bet with your head and not over it. This would be one of the best betting tips to give anyone. Such a slogan is prominently featured on the walls on many casinos in Vegas and Atlantic City. Those that do wish to get the most out of their sports betting experience are well advised to place wagers they can afford. To do otherwise could prove incredibly detrimental to their finances. And what would be the fun in a scenario such as that?

Regression Analysis in Sports Betting Systems

Sport betting is a form of wagering on the outcomes of traditional probability games such as cards, dice, or roulette as well as on the outcomes of sporting events such as football or baseball. Betting results are resolved at the conclusion of the event and generally requires that neither of the parties involved in the wager has any influence on the event in question. A private citizen wagering on the outcome of a football match between Manchester United and Chelsea would be considered a form of sports betting, while the team owner making that same bet would not be considered a form of sports betting.

Sport betting has been popular for centuries. The earliest forms of contemporary sport betting revolved around cock fights in the late 17th century, while wagering on horse races became highly popular between the 19th to 20th centuries. In 1960, television gave birth to a new era in the history of betting on team-based sports, and the longstanding 10% tax on sports betting was eliminated in 1974, leading to even more popularity. In 1990s, the advent of the Internet facilitated online sports betting, creating an increasing need for sophisticated statistical tracking, like regression analysis, to develop winning strategies for wagering.

Traditional gambling and sports betting: Are they same?

There are several key differences between traditional gambling and sports betting. In traditional gambling, the likelihood of any event can be calculated accurately even though the number of possible results may differ (for example: the odds of picking a specific card out of a standard deck is always one in 52). However, the likely result of a sporting event cannot be calculated with such precision. While the odds of winning in traditional gambling are derived from a known probability, sports betting relies on parsing a large number of variables, usually with more than one potential outcome.

Sports gambling: Profitable or not

In 2011, the gross gaming revenue of the global gambling industry was $368.4 billion, with 8.60% of this total earned from wagers made over the Internet. Online gambling includes all Internet-based portals that provide lotteries, poker, casino games, bingo, and sports betting. Sports betting remains most popular form of online wagering, representing 43% of gambling revenue earned from Internet sources, with a total market of $13.66 billion.

Figure: Worldwide gross gambling revenue

**source: Statistical Methodology for Profitable Sports Gambling

Methods used in sports betting system

Various methods can be used to generate a sports betting system, although most experts agree that the most widely used method is regression analysis. Regression analysis can be used to establish the important factors and variables which will influence the overall outcome of a sporting event. Multivariate linear regression, logistic regression, and multiple regression analysis can all be used to calculate the probability of any outcome, and since determining the outcome of a sporting event requires analyzing a high number of variables, regression analysis provides a suitable framework for defining and assigning a value to these variables. For example: A multivariate linear test on American football games was conducted by NFL. The result showed that the most important variable – the variable with the highest influence over the outcome of the match – was “passing efficiency”. Recent movies and bestseller titles like Moneyball have delved into the world of statistical analysis, driving increased interest in the use of regression analysis for sports betting.

Logistic regression analysis

Logistic regression is a forecasting technique that provides a probability percentage for a given variable. For example, if one wants to calculate the probability of a team winning the 59th game of the season, they would analyze the last 58 games to obtain the team’s point differential or margin of victory (MV or MOV). Margin of victory is a statistical term which indicates difference between the number of points scored by the winning team and the number of points scored by the losing team. A smaller MV represents a close match, and by using statistical software like SPSS, the following equation can provide the percentage chance that the team will win, based on MV scores:

(e is known as euler’s number, roughly 2.72).

A percentage chance of winning can also be determined in Microsoft Excel by using this equation:

1 / (1 + EXP(-(-0.0039+0.1272*[MOV])))

Multiple regression analysis in sports betting

Multiple regression systems are widely considered the most reliable modern sports betting system. This core of MRA is built on a timeless logical assumption: “what’s past is prologue”. This means that one must know the past to know the future. To create a multiple regression betting system, one must have reliable data regarding past information of the players and teams, meaning that trustworthy historical data is crucial to building an effective multiple regression system.

An example of using a multiple regression system in sports betting

A sports bettor will wager on the final match between Team A & Team B.

Regression #1: Bettor finds that Team A won the regular series against Team B by 3-1 during the first match of the year.

Regression#2: Bettor finds that Team B crushed Team A in a recent playoff match.

Regression#3: One player of Team A is Player X, and Player X has never won against Team B.

Since both teams have scored a victory, bettor determines that the key variable is the presence of Player X, and decides that Team B will win the match. Thus, by using multiple regression analysis, bettor is able to analyze the events of the past and extrapolate the most probable future.

To utilize multiple regression methodology in a betting system, one needs to posses consistent and reliable data on the past performance of both teams and players (“Multiple Regressions”:2013). Without an extensive and dependable source of historical data, the bettor will not be able to regress into the past to determine probable outcomes of future events (“Multiple Regressions”:2013).

To develop a multiple regression system, mining data from an online sports book that can offer accurate historical sports data in a format that is easily accessible and actionable is highly recommended. These sports books also provide step by step rules for implementing regression analysis techniques in sports betting.

Note that regression analysis methodology is also employed by most casinos in an effort to generate probabilities that favor the house – for similar reasons, sports books use regression analysis to provide sports betting enthusiasts with the same advantage. While we all know that no future event can be predicted with 100% accuracy, a comprehensive regression analysis system can be used by sports boo developers  to calculate probabilities that are highly reliable.

Problem of using regression analysis in sports betting

There is one glaring problem in using regression analysis to predict outcomes of sporting events: the differentiation between correlation and causation. Regression analysis is effective at identifying a correlation between events, but cannot properly identify whether one event is caused by another. For example: regression analysis can be used to show that every time Team A loses, player X does not score a goal. However, regression analysis cannot be used to conclude that Player X not scoring a goal is the cause of Team A losing the match.

In other words, regression analysis can be used to determine probable future performance based on defined past outcomes, but is unable to define causes for past outcomes. Ultimately, the effectiveness of any multiple regression system relies entirely on the proper selection and comparison of variables.

Other betting systems

In addition to multiple regression analysis, there are two other commonly used wagering methodologies: the arbitrage betting system and the use of statistical anomalies. Arbitrage betting is designed to generate profit without taking a loss (“Multiple Regressions and Statistical Anomalies”:2012), and in most cases the result of sports event is not considered. Naturally, profits are not guaranteed, but arbitrage is a straightforward strategy that can easily be learned by novice bettors.

When implementing a strategy around statistical anomalies, the bettor seeks to gain a competitive advantage by diverging from seemingly sound predictions by introducing variables that are often overlooked by other forms of betting systems. Using this tactic successfully requires a careful study of both teams and players, as well as a variety of incidental variables, such as weather, crowd sizes, health conditions, or injuries. By using this methodology, the bettor is attempting to determine how individual players and teams deal with anomalous situations not generally encountered during a match (“Multiple Regressions and Statistical Anomalies”:2012).

Conclusion

While regression analyses can help a bettor identify and define the variables that may affect the outcome of any given match, determining which variables to measure and compare is the central challenge in building a winning regression system. Therefore, regression analysis in sports betting is based upon not only a comparison of reliable past data with future events, but in deciding which variables may potentially alter the probabilities of those future events.

References:

1. Margin of victory.(2013).Retrieved May 25,2013 from http://www.sportingcharts.com/

2. Sportsbetting-Past & present.(2013). Retrieved May 24, 2013 from http://www.thesluggers.com/

3. Multiple Regressions.(2012). Retrieved May 23, 2013 from http://www.casinoreview.org/

4. Multiple Regressions and Statistical Anomalies on Sports Betting.(2012).Retrieved May 23, 2013 fromhttp://www.777sport.co.uk/

5. Moya F.E. “Statistical Methodology for Profitable Sports Gambling”.