luni, 22 iulie 2013

Fernandinho joining City

The first big signing of the summer could be the best, according to many experts. The £30m Brazilian midfielder tells FFT where he’s been hiding all these years...

fernandinho

After eight years in Ukraine, what made you move to England?


I chose to move to City because of the greatness of the team and their ambitions to win titles. I know Shakhtar wanted me to stay so much, but in the end they understood my situation and my heart’s desire, and without any doubt they will always be in my heart.

How would you describe yourself as a footballer?


I would say that my good points are very simple: I try to miss the fewest possible passes and be the engine of the team, linking defence to attack. I have a dream to finish a game without misplacing a single pass.

You’ve decided to wear the No.25 shirt. Why is this?


There are two reasons. The first is that as I played with the No.7 shirt at Shakhtar I wanted the number to relate to seven, so I decided to choose 25 because two plus five equals seven! And the other reason is that during contract negotiations for this move, we were all very tense at home as we didn’t know if the transfer would go through. Then one evening my son said: “My father’s shirt number will be 25.” I felt it was an omen.

How excited are you about playing alongside Yaya Toure?


Very. He is an excellent player, his record speaks for itself and I’m sure I will learn a lot from him. I think City’s squad is full of great players who understand football.

Who are your footballing idols?


When I was a child I was a great fan of the Brazilian goalkeeper, Taffarel. And because of him I wanted to be a goalkeeper too. But, thank God, my father did not let me and made sure I only played with my feet! Football is in my family’s blood: they all love football and my father and my uncles always played, but did not become professionals. I have played football since the age of two, so my mother tells me.

Atletico Paranaense was your first club – what are your memories of your time there?


Atletico was a spectacular club, with a great working structure – it was an excellent club for young players and they have exceptional fans. I had three perfect years playing for that team. A lesson I will never forget is when I was 14 and wanted to leave the training centre and go back to live with my parents, which would mean losing my place at the club and possibly my career, but the team’s president did not let me take this decision and convinced me to stay. And it’s worked out well since!

Have you always played as a central midfielder?


When I passed the trial for my first youth team, Centro de Treinamento de Futebol do Parana, aged 13, I played with older players and the coach put me on the right wing. For a long time I played in that position – even at Atletico, when I first turned professional, I played there sometimes. You moved to Ukraine aged 20.

What made you go?


Initially what grabbed my attention was the financial part, because the difference in salary to what I was earning in Brazil was huge. But it was the best decision I ever made. I learned about another culture and its customs, and it made me grow a lot. My football evolved tactically and technically as well. When I look back, I’m happy that everything went well in those eight years.

How did you cope with the change?


The first few months were not difficult. It was still summer in Europe, meaning I could adapt slowly. What I had to get used to was the kind of training and language. I did not understand a word that was said to me! In supermarkets, I wanted to ask about foods, but couldn’t. On the pitch, the training workouts were more demanding than I’d been used to. Physical contact was constant and sometimes we had fights. But all this was part of the learning curve, and everybody grew up together there.

What’s your proudest achievement?


The first time I was chosen as the player of the season for Shaktar in 2008 – that was fantastic for me. Winning the UEFA Cup in 2009 and the last four domestic league titles, where we played really well, were all big achievements too.

So what’s the aim at City?


To win everything possible. I want to see the supporters smile and cheer... that is my greatest wish.

How’s your English coming along?


I am about to start English classes to learn as quickly as possible. But right now I can communicate in Spanish without problems.

Have you ever eaten fish and chips – England’s most famous food?


Not yet, but I’m curious to try. I really love Brazilian food: rice, beans and red meat.

Finally, Manchester has a great musical heritage. Have you heard of Oasis, who support City?


I hadn’t before, but after doing a bit of research I found out they were one of the best bands of the ’90s! I prefer quiet music: it helps me focus.





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The most expensive transfer in the history of the club Manchester United - Cesc Fabregas.

The most expensive transfer in the history of the club Manchester United- Cesc Fabregas.



cesc-fabregas-496x286-2

David Moyes insists on bringing an improvement to his team and offers for the soccer player from Barcelona over 30 milion pounds plus add-ons. In addition, United has prepared an offer imposibile to refuse and would pay him arround £200,000-a-week.

The Spaniard wants to stay at Nou Camp at least 1 year. The contract with Barcelona runs to 2016 and includes clauses for his former club Arsenal like £25m.



Barca boss insisted that stars such as Lionel Messi and Andres Iniesta don' t have a price, but never mention Fabregas in this category and that give United the hope to clinch a deal.

For the 26-year-old international is not a priority but also it's hard to refuse the offer.

Manchester didn' t bring any name on this summer and hopes to reach an agreement with Barcelona to persuade Fabregas to return to the Premier League.

“But as far as players we are looking to bring in, we are working hard to do that and make some additions to the squad. Hopefully there will be some good news in the not too distant future. I am in contact with the chief exec, Ed Woodward, who has been dealing with it just now",Moyes about United’s move for Fabregas. On the other side Bartome announced “We can assure you that we won’t listen to any offers for Cesc”.





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vineri, 19 iulie 2013

European hopes dependent on Thiago Silva - Barcelona News

Tito Vilanova's need to insert to Barcelona's alternatives at the coronary heart of defence has unsurprisingly reignited rumours of a bid for Thiago Silva.



Silva

The Brazilian is held in substantial regard at the Camp Nou right after an influenced performance in Barca's two-two draw with AC Milan in the Champions League in the 2011-12 time, as well as a pair of powerful showings in PSG's quarter-ultimate away-aim defeat to Barca final period.

He was named in the UEFA Staff of the Calendar year in the two 2011 and 2012, and was instrumental in the Milan aspect that secured the Serie A title in 2010-11, their 1st in seven a long time.

He has both the tempo and the specialized capability to prosper in Barcelona's substantial defensive line, and with 39 caps for Brazil is used to taking part in in a aspect that cherishes possession of the ball in footballing phrases he signifies a risk-totally free selection for Vilanova.

Barcelona are 4/1 to get the Champions League, a price they will uncover challenging to justify should they not improve in an area the place they search light-weight.

Club captain Carles Puyol is turning into progressively injuries-vulnerable and has just lately undergone knee medical procedures, whilst Gerard Pique has also experienced physical fitness issues. Midfielder Javier Mascherano has been compelled to believe to the place, as has Sergio Busquets on celebration.

With the departure to Monaco of one more auxiliary centre-back, Eric Abidal, a bid for Silva tends to make a enormous deal of perception, and at 28, the Brazilian must be entering his peak a long time, and could offer a long expression associate for Pique. The Brazilian would also carry management to the backline, which Barca have been accused of lacking in Puyol's absence.

Even so, whether Barca have the monetary firepower to lure Thiago stays to be seen, specifically following their £48.6 million recruitment of Neymar – rumours that in change show up to be fuelling speculation of Cesc Fabregas's mooted move to Manchester United.

Thiago Silva will inevitably expense a gargantuan sum. PSG paid £42 million for his providers, but they confirmed a deference to recognized European powers in allowing manager Carlo Ancelotti assume the reins at Genuine Madrid, which could motivate Barca. It is also tough to believe that the player himself would not welcome the transfer, regardless of his proclamations of loyalty to PSG.

The club will no doubt be investigating alternate options, but if they are to usurp Bayern Munich at the top of European soccer, Silva have to be their principal target.





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miercuri, 17 iulie 2013

How To Pick Successful Betting Tips That Will Win

Creating cash from sports activities betting is very difficult and it is fair to say that about 90% of gamblers will constantly shed cash. They could have intervals exactly where they get, but they will have the greater part of periods the place they consistently drop. The other 10% who make funds have a program in location, and they have a method that makes it possible for them to make cash utilizing their betting tips.

In order to pick good quality tips, analysis has to be a huge element of your selection procedure. You must usually wager on sports activities that you know, or athletics that you have analyzed extensively. Betting on athletics with two results is always a whole lot easier than betting on athletics with 3 results, and that in switch
is easier than betting on a horse race with several outcomes.

For case in point, in football, a attract is a quite most likely end result, so there are 3 results that are obtainable, but in say rugby union or rugby league, the likelihood of acquiring a attract is virtually zilch. The exact same applies for tennis, snooker and darts - there are only two results available, it is just acquire or shed.

This helps make it significantly less complicated for you to pick your betting tips, and for you to locate sports that have a increased possibility of successful. This is not to say you cannot decide on ideas for horse racing, but it is critical to understand that horse racing is naturally a whole lot riskier than tennis for illustration. You will also discover that you will get decrease odds on tennis as opposed to horse racing and this is because it is a great deal less difficult to get on a tennis match than it is to acquire on a horse race!

A great deal of folks bet on horse racing basically for the excitement and that adrenaline hurry, and if you want to have that, horse racing is absolutely for you. If you are hunting to make a lengthy-time period revenue from your betting, it is essential to choose athletics that have the greatest possibility of winning and not sports activities you appreciate observing. If you can recognize the best betting suggestions on a day-to-day basis, it is straightforward to make cash.

As soon as you have picked your betting tips that you want to bet on, it is important to bet sensibly and have a staking technique in spot, which you will comply with. Be wise with your bets and examination out your betting ideas 1st before you start betting with your challenging-attained funds. Screening goes a long way, and it never ever hurts to be a 100% certain ahead of genuine betting with real cash.

luni, 15 iulie 2013

Pellegrini: Dzeko to stay at City - Premier League

Manuel Pellegrini has confirmed he wants striker Edin Dzeko to stay at Manchester City.



edin-dzeko

The 27-year-old's future has been the focus of much speculation in the summer as City have continued to be linked with a number of strikers, including Fiorentina's Stevan Joveti and Sevilla's Alvaro Negredo.

Speaking before taking charge of his first game as City boss against Supersport United in Pretoria, the Chilean moved quickly however to quash suggestions that Dzeko was not in his plans.

"I spoke with Dzeko while he was on holiday," said Pellegrini.

"He doesn't have any problem. He'll stay.

"For me, he's a very important player and I'm sure that he will give, this season, the performances we know he can."

Following their disappointment in reclaiming the Premier League title last season, the Citizens have bolstered their squad with the signings of Fernandinho and Jesus Navas, and Pellegrini revealed he was still keen to do more business.

"We will sign maybe two or three more players," he said.

City are rated as 3.25 to win the Premier League next season, with Chelsea 3.25.





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luni, 8 iulie 2013

Best of luck! Use your knowledge. Win Big!

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duminică, 23 iunie 2013

Regression Analysis in Sports Betting Systems

Sport betting is a form of wagering on the outcomes of traditional probability games such as cards, dice, or roulette as well as on the outcomes of sporting events such as football or baseball. Betting results are resolved at the conclusion of the event and generally requires that neither of the parties involved in the wager has any influence on the event in question. A private citizen wagering on the outcome of a football match between Manchester United and Chelsea would be considered a form of sports betting, while the team owner making that same bet would not be considered a form of sports betting.
Sport betting has been popular for centuries. The earliest forms of contemporary sport betting revolved around cock fights in the late 17th century, while wagering on horse races became highly popular between the 19th to 20th centuries. In 1960, television gave birth to a new era in the history of betting on team-based sports, and the longstanding 10% tax on sports betting was eliminated in 1974, leading to even more popularity. In 1990s, the advent of the Internet facilitated online sports betting, creating an increasing need for sophisticated statistical tracking, like regression analysis, to develop winning strategies for wagering.
Traditional gambling and sports betting: Are they same?
There are several key differences between traditional gambling and sports betting. In traditional gambling, the likelihood of any event can be calculated accurately even though the number of possible results may differ (for example: the odds of picking a specific card out of a standard deck is always one in 52). However, the likely result of a sporting event cannot be calculated with such precision. While the odds of winning in traditional gambling are derived from a known probability, sports betting relies on parsing a large number of variables, usually with more than one potential outcome.
Sports gambling: Profitable or not
In 2011, the gross gaming revenue of the global gambling industry was $368.4 billion, with 8.60% of this total earned from wagers made over the Internet. Online gambling includes all Internet-based portals that provide lotteries, poker, casino games, bingo, and sports betting. Sports betting remains most popular form of online wagering, representing 43% of gambling revenue earned from Internet sources, with a total market of $13.66 billion.
gambling-revenue
Figure: Worldwide gross gambling revenue
**source: Statistical Methodology for Profitable Sports Gambling
Methods used in sports betting system
Various methods can be used to generate a sports betting system, although most experts agree that the most widely used method is regression analysis. Regression analysis can be used to establish the important factors and variables which will influence the overall outcome of a sporting event. Multivariate linear regression, logistic regression, and multiple regression analysis can all be used to calculate the probability of any outcome, and since determining the outcome of a sporting event requires analyzing a high number of variables, regression analysis provides a suitable framework for defining and assigning a value to these variables. For example: A multivariate linear test on American football games was conducted by NFL. The result showed that the most important variable – the variable with the highest influence over the outcome of the match – was “passing efficiency”. Recent movies and bestseller titles like Moneyball have delved into the world of statistical analysis, driving increased interest in the use of regression analysis for sports betting.
Logistic regression analysis
Logistic regression is a forecasting technique that provides a probability percentage for a given variable. For example, if one wants to calculate the probability of a team winning the 59th game of the season, they would analyze the last 58 games to obtain the team’s point differential or margin of victory (MV or MOV). Margin of victory is a statistical term which indicates difference between the number of points scored by the winning team and the number of points scored by the losing team. A smaller MV represents a close match, and by using statistical software like SPSS, the following equation can provide the percentage chance that the team will win, based on MV scores:
euler
(e is known as euler’s number, roughly 2.72).
A percentage chance of winning can also be determined in Microsoft Excel by using this equation:
1 / (1 + EXP(-(-0.0039+0.1272*[MOV])))
Multiple regression analysis in sports betting
Multiple regression systems are widely considered the most reliable modern sports betting system. This core of MRA is built on a timeless logical assumption: “what’s past is prologue”. This means that one must know the past to know the future. To create a multiple regression betting system, one must have reliable data regarding past information of the players and teams, meaning that trustworthy historical data is crucial to building an effective multiple regression system.
An example of using a multiple regression system in sports betting
A sports bettor will wager on the final match between Team A & Team B.
Regression #1: Bettor finds that Team A won the regular series against Team B by 3-1 during the first match of the year.
Regression#2: Bettor finds that Team B crushed Team A in a recent playoff match.
Regression#3: One player of Team A is Player X, and Player X has never won against Team B.
Since both teams have scored a victory, bettor determines that the key variable is the presence of Player X, and decides that Team B will win the match. Thus, by using multiple regression analysis, bettor is able to analyze the events of the past and extrapolate the most probable future.
To utilize multiple regression methodology in a betting system, one needs to posses consistent and reliable data on the past performance of both teams and players (“Multiple Regressions”:2013). Without an extensive and dependable source of historical data, the bettor will not be able to regress into the past to determine probable outcomes of future events (“Multiple Regressions”:2013).
To develop a multiple regression system, mining data from an online sports book that can offer accurate historical sports data in a format that is easily accessible and actionable is highly recommended. These sports books also provide step by step rules for implementing regression analysis techniques in sports betting.
Note that regression analysis methodology is also employed by most casinos in an effort to generate probabilities that favor the house – for similar reasons, sports books use regression analysis to provide sports betting enthusiasts with the same advantage. While we all know that no future event can be predicted with 100% accuracy, a comprehensive regression analysis system can be used by sports boo developers  to calculate probabilities that are highly reliable.
Problem of using regression analysis in sports betting
There is one glaring problem in using regression analysis to predict outcomes of sporting events: the differentiation between correlation and causation. Regression analysis is effective at identifying a correlation between events, but cannot properly identify whether one event is caused by another. For example: regression analysis can be used to show that every time Team A loses, player X does not score a goal. However, regression analysis cannot be used to conclude that Player X not scoring a goal is the cause of Team A losing the match.
In other words, regression analysis can be used to determine probable future performance based on defined past outcomes, but is unable to define causes for past outcomes. Ultimately, the effectiveness of any multiple regression system relies entirely on the proper selection and comparison of variables.
Other betting systems
In addition to multiple regression analysis, there are two other commonly used wagering methodologies: the arbitrage betting system and the use of statistical anomalies. Arbitrage betting is designed to generate profit without taking a loss (“Multiple Regressions and Statistical Anomalies”:2012), and in most cases the result of sports event is not considered. Naturally, profits are not guaranteed, but arbitrage is a straightforward strategy that can easily be learned by novice bettors.
When implementing a strategy around statistical anomalies, the bettor seeks to gain a competitive advantage by diverging from seemingly sound predictions by introducing variables that are often overlooked by other forms of betting systems. Using this tactic successfully requires a careful study of both teams and players, as well as a variety of incidental variables, such as weather, crowd sizes, health conditions, or injuries. By using this methodology, the bettor is attempting to determine how individual players and teams deal with anomalous situations not generally encountered during a match (“Multiple Regressions and Statistical Anomalies”:2012).
Conclusion
While regression analyses can help a bettor identify and define the variables that may affect the outcome of any given match, determining which variables to measure and compare is the central challenge in building a winning regression system. Therefore, regression analysis in sports betting is based upon not only a comparison of reliable past data with future events, but in deciding which variables may potentially alter the probabilities of those future events.
References:
1. Margin of victory.(2013).Retrieved May 25,2013 from http://www.sportingcharts.com/
2. Sportsbetting-Past & present.(2013). Retrieved May 24, 2013 from http://www.thesluggers.com/
3. Multiple Regressions.(2012). Retrieved May 23, 2013 from http://www.casinoreview.org/
4. Multiple Regressions and Statistical Anomalies on Sports Betting.(2012).Retrieved May 23, 2013 fromhttp://www.777sport.co.uk/
5. Moya F.E. “Statistical Methodology for Profitable Sports Gambling”.